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Net Zero 2050

The future of energy in transportation

Decarbonizing Global Transport – A Turning Poin

The transportation sector is at the center of the global net-zero transformation, contributing nearly 25% of energy-related CO₂ emissions. While passenger cars and commercial vehicles account for the majority, aviation and maritime industries also play significant roles. Governments and industries worldwide have set ambitious decarbonization targets, but the exact pathways remain uncertain and complex.

 

This study explores the evolving energy demand across key global regions—the EU, US, China, and Brazil—representing 60% of global transport energy consumption. By analyzing 40 energy vectors and employing advanced Monte Carlo simulations, the study unveils energy transition scenarios through 2050.

The Shift in Energy Demand: What to Expect?

The results indicate a dramatic transformation in how transportation is powered:

  • Decline of Fossil Fuels, Rise of Alternative Energy
    • Petroleum-based fuels will see a steep decline, driven by stricter CO₂ regulations and advances in alternative energy.
    • Despite the rise of electric and hydrogen-based fuels, liquid fuels will still supply over 50% of transport energy in 2050 due to their role in aviation and maritime industries.
    • The shift will be gradual until 2030, but after 2040, the demand for e-fuels and biofuels will surge to compensate for declining fossil fuel use.
  • Hydrogen and Electricity: The Game Changers
    • Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) will dominate long-haul commercial transport, replacing traditional diesel trucks.
    • Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will see mass adoption, particularly in urban and regional mobility.
    • Hydrogen and ammonia will become key energy carriers, especially in aviation and shipping.
  • The Role of Biofuels and E-Fuels
    • Biofuels will be essential for aviation and maritime sectors, but their availability will be constrained by feedstock limitations.
    • E-fuels (synthetic fuels derived from green hydrogen and CO₂) will gain importance after 2040, particularly in aviation.
    • The EU and US will lead in e-fuel adoption, while China will continue relying on fossil fuels until its net-zero goal in 2060.

Regional Energy Evolution:
Who Leads the Race?

The U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization outlines the most aggressive transition away from fossil fuels, with the goal of achieving zero petroleum-based fuels by 2050.

The EU Fit for 55 package and Green Deal set ambitious climate targets, including a 90% reduction in transport emissions by 2050. While electrification dominates passenger and light commercial transport, the EU sees hydrogen as a cornerstone for heavy transport, aviation, and industry.

hina, the world’s largest transportation energy consumer, has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, placing it ten years behind the EU and U.S. However, its transition is expected to accelerate rapidly after 2040 due to:

  • Government-controlled industrial shifts
  • Delayed phaseout of fossil fuels
  • Heavy investment in battery-electric transport
  • State-led hydrogen initiatives
  • Maritime sector focus on LNG and ammonia
  • Aviation biofuels as a later-stage priority

Brazil is unique in the global energy transition due to its strong biomass resources, making biofuels the dominant alternative to fossil fuels. Unlike the U.S. and EU, which focus on e-fuels and hydrogen, Brazil will rely primarily on ethanol and biodiesel to decarbonize transport.

Energy Transition: Market Opportunities & Challenges

Investment in Clean Energy Technologies

Over €8 billion will be invested in fuel cell and battery manufacturing by 2040.

The demand for hydrogen and ammonia infrastructure will drive new supply chain strategies.

Power-to-X technologies (converting electricity into fuels) will be essential for meeting aviation and shipping energy demands.

What’s Next for the Transport Industry?

Reaching Net Zero 2050 will require a complete transformation of energy supply and demand. While electrification and hydrogen will dominate ground transport, liquid fuels will continue playing a crucial role in aviation and shipping. The real challenge lies in ensuring a stable, sustainable, and cost-effective supply of these alternative fuels.

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    Fossil fuels decline, but liquid fuels remain essential for aviation and maritime.
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    lectric and hydrogen powertrains will drive road transport decarbonization.
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    Biofuels and e-fuels will be critical, but supply constraints may limit their scalability.
  • 0
    Investments in energy infrastructure and supply chains will determine the pace of adoption.
OGCI | FEV Net Zero 2050

The future of energy in transportation

2024

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